We are in an entirely undesirable situation, both for the United States, the European nations, and Iraq.

The case that Iraq has Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical weapons has already been proven, in 1992. If you don't believe me, consult your history books. Iraq was given the equivalent of a court order to disarm and prove to the world that it had. It is now Iraq's job to conclusively follow that order and show the world that it has complied. Saddam Hussien refuses to do this. All the nandering about "proving your innocence" is irrelevant. Once the case has already been made against you, you need to provide a convincing case for "reasonable doubt."

Saddam knows that it is only by keeping his people unified against an outside enemy that he can keep them united under his leadership. He is going to do everything to hold onto power, so it will only be on the verge of war that he will consider destroying his powerful weapons (right now a powerful bargaining tool) and only then if he believes that it is more likely to keep him in power than the alternative.

Because of Saddam's unreasonable stance, his people were suffering horribly from the embargoes. The United States has tried various means of forcing an end to this issue including bombing Iraq several times, tightening parts of the embargo, angry words. France (one of Iraq's largest trading partners) and several other countries have been pressing for some time to have the embargoes dropped, partly for humanitarian reasons and partly for economic ones. They have weakened parts of it, especially the limits on infrastructure and food products. During all this, Iraq's myriad neighbors have intensive smuggling programs on the borders, bypassing much of the embargoes and threatening the whole program with irrelevance. The entire system would have collapsed in a few years. Still, it did not have to be handled now or in this fashion. W was extremely unwise in both his presentation and timing, causing the United States extreme damage while hindering the possibility of beneficial resolution short of war.

Because of Bush bringing Iraq back to the forefront of world affairs, the world now has to act in a short time-frame. If Iraq is not convinced to disarm, then it will show the world that the U.N., E.U., U.S., etc. are not serious about our nonproliferation agreements. Already, because we are dragging our feet, Iran and North Korea have restarted their nuclear programs. The longer we leave Iraq in noncompliance, the less likely it will be that we can save these international treaties. As soon as Iran, North Korea and pals have NBC, their neighbors will get them and so on. Pretty soon, it will be impossible to intervene in world affairs for any member of the U.N., including our European allies. The Nuclear Umbrella will be rendered meaningless and Pax Americana will be a distant memory. There is a likelihood that this could lead to a renewed period of world conflict. After all, who is going to be willing to stop the next genocide or save Kuwait the next time it is invaded?

Iraq is not a direct threat to the United States. They have links to terrorism, but they are not a significant contributor to them in world affairs. They are an oil-rich country, but this war is not entirely about oil. The reason it has to be convincingly threatened, and if, God forbid, it becomes necessary, fought soon, is for the sake of world peace in every country, including France, Germany, Belgium, Russia, and China. For the United States (and Britain), we have to follow through with our stated intentions. Not only that, but we have to play the lead in disarming Iraq. The other countries are not willing to let the nonproliferation agreements die, but, if the United States is going to insist on fighting this war with or without them, that is exactly what they may do. None of these nations like Hyperpowers and by hampering the United States, they damage its international power while enhancing their own. It is a risky game to be sure, since the more they isolate the U.S., the more the isolate themselves. Most people suspect that France, Russia, China, and Belgium will belgrudgingly accept a war in the end, after doing their damnedest to damage the U.S power. Germany is likely going to be the odd man out since they are the only country to completely rule out support for force in any form.

-Biscuits